Estimación del Tax – Gap en Colombia e identificación de medidas proactivas para su reducción

Resumen

This doctoral thesis focuses on the study of tax non-compliance, addressing forms of tax evasion and avoidance, and their impact on tax collection in Colombia. The causes that generate tax non-compliance are analyzed, including factors such as macroeconomic instability, economic informality, the complexity of tax frameworks, and corruption. Additionally, the relationship between tax non-compliance and the underground economy is explored. The main objective is to estimate the impact of the tax gap derived from tax non-compliance on public revenues throughout the period 1970-2018. A structural equation model is proposed to empirically analyze this relationship. As a result, proactive mechanisms contributing to the progressive closure of the tax gap in Colombia were identified. This study is relevant given the impact of tax non-compliance on the availability of resources to address social demands and on taxpayers' perception of fiscal policies and tax administration. Moreover, it is especially pertinent for developing countries where higher levels of tax non-compliance are observed. In the Colombian case, fiscal weakness, lack of equity in income distribution, and inefficient tax collection are highlighted as challenges to be addressed