Influencia de la incertidumbre de política económica en las cotizaciones de la Bolsa de Valores de Panamá

  1. Sánchez Gabarre, Mary Elena 1
  2. Castellanos García, Pablo 1
  3. Herrera Ballesteros, Víctor Hugo 2
  1. 1 Universidad de La Coruña 
  2. 2 Universidad de Panamá
Revista:
International Review of Economic Policy: Revista Internacional de Política Económica

ISSN: 2695-7035

Año de publicación: 2023

Volumen: 5

Número: 1

Páginas: 72-88

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.7203/IREP.5.1.26979 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: International Review of Economic Policy: Revista Internacional de Política Económica

Resumen

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es estudiar la relación existente entre el índice bursátil de referencia en Panamá y la incertidumbre de política económica desde una perspectiva tanto a nivel global como a nivel nacional. En particular, se pretende profundizar de forma novedosa en el análisis de esta relación para saber hasta qué punto los hechos de política económica afectan a los movimientos bursátiles panameños, adoptando como hipótesis de partida que un incremento en la incertidumbre está asociado a una disminución de los índices bursátiles; es decir, que la relación incertidumbre-cotización sea inversa. Para ello, se tienen en cuenta los datos comprendidos en el periodo de enero de 1997 a diciembre de 2020 con una periodicidad mensual. Este estudio se lleva a cabo a través de la descomposición de las series temporales, así como de la aplicación de la metodología GARCH, pues es el que nos permite suplir la información producida por las variaciones en los precios. Los resultados obtenidos nos llevan a concluir que la influencia de la incertidumbre de política económica, afecta de forma negativa en las cotizaciones bursátiles del índice de referencia de Panamá.

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