Drop out prediction in sport centresdefinition of models and reproducibility

  1. Iván Clavel San Emeterio 1
  2. Jorge García-Unanue 2
  3. Eliseo Iglesias-Soler 1
  4. Leonor Gallardo 2
  5. José Luis Felipe 3
  1. 1 Universidade da Coruña
    info

    Universidade da Coruña

    La Coruña, España

    ROR https://ror.org/01qckj285

  2. 2 Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
    info

    Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha

    Ciudad Real, España

    ROR https://ror.org/05r78ng12

  3. 3 Universidad Europea de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Europea de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/04dp46240

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Journal:
Retos: nuevas tendencias en educación física, deporte y recreación

ISSN: 1579-1726,  1988-2041

Year of publication: 2020

Issue: 37

Pages: 54-61

Type: Article

DOI: 10.47197/RETOS.V37I37.71423 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

More publications in: Retos: nuevas tendencias en educación física, deporte y recreación

Abstract

Purpose: One of the main problems detected in the sport centre field is abandonment of physical activity by members. The aim of this estudy is to evaluate the reproducibility of predictive models of abandonment in sports centres, based on information collected through access control and the Customer Relationship Management system. Method: Monthly data corresponding to the actual behaviour of of two sport centres in Spain were recorded over the course of one year (12,545 members). Based on these variables, two predictive models were designed using the absence or permanence in the centre as an independent variable. Subsequently, the regression formula obtained was applied on all members of the same sports centres a year later (12,986 members), checking the effectiveness and reproducibility of the model. Results:. Logistic regression models based on customer historical behaviour were useful to predict abandonment. The effectiveness of the models was around 70% a year after. Conclusions: The segmentation of users based on the likelihood of drop out and the identification of behaviour variables that predict such drop out and the confirmation of the effectiveness of the predictive model, can help to optimize the design of loyalty strategies to prevent the abandonment in sport centres.

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Funding information

JGU agradece la financiación del «Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional, Programa Operativo de la Región de Castilla-La Mancha» (2018/11744).

Funders

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